The Fed upped the federal funds rate by 0.75% last week. It also signaled that interest rates would rise by another 1.25% before year-end. Bond yields soared to multi-year highs. Investors are worried the Fed’s fight against inflation will start a new recession. Trading in the final week of the third quarter starts with the S&P 500 just 1.5% above its 2022 low. A break below the June low could result in the benchmark probing its pre-pandemic highs. New inflation data are due this week.

The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.75% to the 3.00–3.25% range on Wednesday, September 21.

Fed Chair Powell said U.S. central bank officials are “strongly resolved” to lower inflation from the highest levels in four decades and “will keep at it until the job is done.”

Fed officials predicted that the federal funds rate would be in the 4.25–4.5% range by year-end, implying interest rates would rise 1.25% in November and December combined.

The central bank’s economic projections showed gross domestic product growth of just 0.2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023, sharply lower than the prior forecast. The unemployment rate, currently at 3.7%, is expected to rise to 4.4% next year.

Investors saw the Fed’s stance on interest rates in the face of the above economic forecast as a willingness to tolerate a U.S. recession.

The risks of a global recession also rose as several other central banks upped interest rates. The central banks in England and Norway raised their benchmark interest rates by 0.5%, while those in Switzerland and Hong Kong raised them by 0.75%.

The yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes surged to new multi-year highs. The yield on the 10-year and 2-year notes rose 0.25% and 0.35%, respectively, to close the week at 3.7% and 4.2%, respectively.

The U.S. dollar index hit its highest level since 2002 while oil prices dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time since January.

For the week ending September 23, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 4.6%. All of the 11 sectors declined.

Consumer staples (XLP) fell the least, while energy (XLE) fell the most.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending September 23, 2022.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Consumer Staples Sector

• General Mills (GIS) +5% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.
• Kellogg (K) +3%
• Hormel Foods (HRL) +2%
• Campbell Soup (CPB) +2%
• Hershey (HSY) +2%
• Conagra Brands (CAG) +2%
• Lamb Weston (LW) +1%
• J. M. Smucker (SJM) +1%

2. Industrial Sector

• Allegion PLC (ALLE) +3%

3. Consumer Discretionary Sector

• Lennar LEN) +2%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: U.S. dollar, managed futures, Brazil, floating rate bonds, short-term treasury bonds. The top ETFs for the week include:

• Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) 3.1%
• iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) 2.8%
• iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) 2.5%
• iShares Floating Rate Bond ETF (FLOT) 0.2%
• iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) 0.1%

Will Stocks Hold Above Pre-COVID Highs This Week?

* The final week of the third quarter has often proved difficult for stocks. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 30,000 to set a new 2022 low. The S&P 500 closed within 1.5% of its 2022 low set intraday on June 17. Investors are anxious to see if the benchmark finds support around the 3,635 mark. A break below 3,635 could result in the index falling below 3,400. The S&P 500 topped around 3,400 before the pandemic in February 2020.

* The update on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is due. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to increase 0.5% in August from July. They expect the PCE to rise by 4.7% on a year-over-basis. For comparison purposes, the PCE rose 0.1% in July and showed a year-over-year increase of 4.6%.

* The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for September and new home sales in August are economic data due this week.

* The S&P 500 member companies reporting this week include CarMax, Cintas, Micron Technology, Nike, and Paychex.
 

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The S&P 500 lost 4.8% as investors confronted inflation concerns, ominous economic signs, and looming interest rate increases. The August CPI data topped economists’ consensus forecast. FedEx startled investors. The transportation titan removed its annual outlook, citing worsening macroeconomic trends worldwide. Investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve to increase benchmark interest rates by 0.75-1.00% this week. The Fed’s comments on future interest rate increases will determine how stocks perform this week.

The Labor Department’s report on consumer prices showed inflation is running hot. The core consumer price index (core CPI), which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.6% from July to August, exceeding economists’ forecast of 0.3%. Higher rents, new vehicle prices, and medical costs drove the core CPI up. The core CPI rose 6.3% in the 12 months ending in August, up from 5.9% in July.

The CPI, which includes food and energy prices, rose 0.1% month over month in August, compared to economists’ expectations for a 0.1% decline. Food prices rose, more than offsetting the decline in gasoline prices.

The producer price index (PPI) data suggested inflation in wholesale price increases is moderating. Investors, however, ignored this data point.

Investors feared that the higher-than-expected CPI reading could lead the Fed to rapidly hike interest rates, increasing the odds of a recession.

Global logistics and transportation titan FedEx added to investors’ recession worries. FedEx withdrew its fiscal 2023 outlook after its preliminary first-quarter results fell short of analysts’ estimate. FedEx attributed the shortfall to a decline in global volumes. The company said macroeconomic trends worsened during the quarter in Asia, Europe, and the U.S. FedEx shares dropped 21% last Friday, their worst one-day decline.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also warned of a global economic slowdown last week. Steelmakers Nucor and U.S. Steel lowered their guidance for quarterly results, noting an increase in “market headwinds” during the third quarter.

For the week ending September 16, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 4.8%. All of the 11 sectors declined.

Healthcare (XLV) fell the least, while materials (XLB) fell the most.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending September 16, 2022.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Consumer Discretionary Sector

• Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) +7% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) +5%
• Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +4%
• Carnival Corp. (CCL) +3%
• Starbucks (SBUX) +3%

2. Energy Sector

• APA Corp. (APA) +6%

3. Healthcare Sector

• Humana (HUM) +4%

4. Information Technology Sector

• Enphase Energy (ENPH) +4%

5. Communication Services Sector

• Netflix (NFLX) +3%

6. Financial Sector

• Allstate Corp. (ALL) +2%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: carbon credits, silver, platinum, U.S. dollar, foreign bonds. The top ETFs for the week include:

• KraneShares Global Carbon ETF (KRBN) 6.4%
• iShares Silver Trust (SLV) 3.9%
• abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (PPLT) 3.2%
• Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) 0.7%
• Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (BNDX) 0.2%

Does the Fed Want Stocks to Fall More?

* Investors’ attention this week is on interest rate policies in the U.S., the U.K., and Japan. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan hold discussions to decide interest rates. In the U.S., the Federal Open Market Committee meets on September 20 and 21. The CME Group FedWatch tool shows an 82% chance of the FOMC raising the federal funds rate by 0.75% and an 18% chance of upping it by 1.00%. Economists expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Bank of Japan to leave them unchanged or lower them.

* The uncertainty on interest rates after the September meeting is high. Worries about a recession are rising rapidly. The Fed can worsen such concerns by continuing its hawkish stance. The Fed can also ease recession worries by acknowledging that its steps to fight inflation are working. What the Fed says in this regard will determine how stocks fare next week.

* August data from the housing industry come out. Rising raw material costs and declining affordability are weighing on housing demand. For the first time since 2008, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now above 6%. Industry forecasters expect existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits to decline.

* Several S&P 500 index constituents from various industries report earnings. The reporting companies include Accenture, AutoZone, Costco, Darden Restaurants, FactSet Research Systems, FedEx, General Mills, and Lennar Group.

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The S&P 500 gained 3.7% last week, closing above its 50-day moving average. Oil prices retreated, while economic data exceeded expectations. The S&P 500’s next hurdle is its 200-DMA. The index needs to rise over 5% to scale its 200-DMA. Investors’ focus is on consumer price inflation this week, the last one before the September 20-21 FOMC meeting.

Stocks reversed their recent losses as investors grew more confident that inflation would moderate. Oil prices extended their decline in August, spurring this optimism. Concerns of oil demand falling in response to global central banks hiking interest rates pressured oil.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada hiked benchmark interest rates by 0.75%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 0.50%.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing inflation down. He also stated that a pause in rate hikes or a pivot to cutting interest rates is not coming soon.

Concerns about rising bond yields eased. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note appeared to stabilize around the 3.30% mark after rising in prior weeks.

Hopes of the economy avoiding a recession got a boost from economic reports that pointed to continued resilience. Growth in orders and employment helped the Institute for Supply Management’s service activity index rise in August, while economists expected a decline.

For the week ending September 09, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 3.7%. All of the 11 sectors advanced.

Energy (XLE) rose the least, while consumer discretionary (XLY) rose the most.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending September 09, 2022.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Healthcare Sector

• Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) +21% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.
• DexCom (DXCM) +12%

2. Materials Sector

• Albemarle (ALB) +17%
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) +15%

3. Information Technology Sector

• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) +16%

4. Consumer Discretionary Sector

• Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) +15%
• Caesars Entertainment(CZR) +14%
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) +12%

5. Communication Services Sector

• Match Group (MTCH) +12%

6. Industrials Sector

• United Airlines Holdings (UAL) +12%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: rare earth metals, uranium, growth stocks, internet and cloud computing. The top ETFs for the week include:

• VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) 11.9%
• Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) 10.1%
• ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) 9.9%
• ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) 9.6%
• WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) 9.6%

Will August CPI Data Extend the Rally into the Week of September 12

* Last Friday’s rally pushed the S&P500 above its 50-day moving average (DMA) after a two-month hiatus. The benchmark’s next hurdle is its 200-DMA, a level commonly seen as the separation between bull and bear markets. The S&P 500 failed to break above its 200-day moving average in mid-August. The index needs to gain over 5% from last Friday’s close to scale above its 200-DMA of 4,275.

* The Labor Department will report the August consumer price index on Tuesday. Economists expect the CPI to show a monthly decline for the first time in over two years due to lower gasoline prices. Trading Economics forecasts the CPI to fall 0.2% in August from July, bringing the year-over-year change in the CPI down to 8.1% from 8.5% last month.

* Data on the August Producer Price Index and retail sales are also due. The PPI tracks inflation at the wholesale level, while retail sales provide insights into consumer spending.

* Quarterly earnings reports from software companies Adobe and Oracle are due this week.
 

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The S&P 500 fell 3.2%, its third consecutive weekly decline. Investors worried that global central banks would raise interest rates rapidly to counter inflation. The continuation of Europe’s natural gas crisis ended the rally sparked by an inline U.S. August jobs report. Trading this week is a four-day affair due to the Labor Day holiday. Apple’s annual product launch convention is the main event of the short trading week.

Stocks extended the decline from the prior week’s Jackson Hole event on fears of the Federal Reserve and other central banks raising interest rates rapidly to counter inflation.

The Labor Department reported job openings rose to 11.3 million in July, from an upwardly revised 10.0 million in June, to escalate such fears.

The August jobs report, however, brought some calm. It showed the U.S. economy added 315,000 new jobs last month, roughly in line with expectations of 318,000 jobs from a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% compared to economists’ 0.4% estimate. The unemployment rate roseto 3.7% from 3.5%, suggesting that the Fed’s efforts to front-load interest rate hikes were beginning to take effect.

Stocks attempted to rally after investors perceived the above as “Goldilocks” jobs data.

The rally, however, was cut short when the expected easing of the European natural gas crisis did not occur. Citing an oil leak, Russia’s Gazprom delayed the planned resumption of natural gas exports to the continent last Saturday. Gazprom did not provide a new time frame for gas exports to resume.

For the week ending September 02, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 3.2%. All of the 11 sectors declined.

Utilities (XLU) fell the least, while information technology (XLK) lost the most.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending September 02, 2022.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Information Technology Sector

• DXC Technology Company (DXC) +13% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.

2. Healthcare Sector

• Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) +5%
• Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) +2%
• McKesson Corporation (MCK) +2%

3. Consumer Discretionary Sector

• Bath & Body Works, Inc. (BBWI) +4%
• Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) +3%

4. Consumer Staples Sector

• Dollar General Corporation (DG) +3%
• Target Corporation (TGT) +2%

5. Utilities Sector

• The AES Corporation (AES) +2%

6. Financial Sector

• MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) +2%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: uranium, U.S. dollar, India, floating rate debt, short duration debt. The top ETFs for the week include:

• Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) 3.6%
• Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) 0.9%
• iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) 0.6%
• WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury Fund (USFR) 0.1%
• Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (GSY) 0.1%

Will Apple Turn the Market Around the Week of September 05

* Apple’s annual convention is the main event of the week. This year’s conference is on Wednesday is titled “Far Out.” Apple is expected to unveil several new products, including the iPhone 14 series.

* The Institute of Supply Management updates its U.S. service activity measure. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the index to dip to 55.5 from 56.7 in July. The Federal Reserve releases its “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions,” also known as the “Beige Book.”

* The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its interest rate policy meeting. Economists expect the ECB to raise benchmark interest rates by at least 0.50%. The ECB is under pressure to raise rates by larger increments from rising inflation and a falling euro. Eurozone’s inflation rate hit a new all-time high of 9.1% in August.
 

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Stocks swooned last Friday after Fed Chairman Powell dispelled expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy stance than some investors had anticipated. The S&P 500 ended the week lower by 4.0%. Economic data is in focus this week. The August jobs data is due this Friday. Investors will also seek confirmation on moderating inflation from home price data. The earnings report should provide investors with insights on the financial wellbeing of the consumer.

The Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium was the main event of the week of August 22.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell iterated a tough stance on inflation at this event. He downplayed hopes for a less-aggressive monetary policy stance that some investors expected.

Powell said, “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses.”

Economic data showed a moderation in inflation. The personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) fell 0.1% in July. The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices and watched by Fed policy makers, rose 0.1% in July. On an annual basis, the core PCE declined by 4.6% versus economists’ forecast for 4.8%.

Falling gasoline prices helped to lift consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 58.2 in August from 51.5 in July. Consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 4.8%, the lowest reading in eight months.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised its estimate for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth upward. The BEA said GDP contracted at a 0.6% annual rate. The BEA had preliminarily estimated GDP to shrink by 0.9% in the second quarter.

Investors weighed the implications of interest rates staying high for a longer time. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond nudged higher by 0.05% for the week to 3.04%.

For the week ending August 26, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 4.0%. Ten of the 11 sectors declined.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending August 26, 2022.

Among the S&P 500 sectors, energy (XLE) was the sole winner while information technology (XLK) lost the most.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Materials Sector

• The Mosaic Company (MOS) +15% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.
• CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) +14%
• Albemarle Corporation (ALB) +7%

2. Energy Sector

• APA Corporation (APA) +11%
• Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) +7%
• Hess Corporation (HES) +7%
• ConocoPhillips (COP) +7%
• Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) +6%
• Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) +6%

3. Consumer Discretionary Sector

• Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) +7%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: uranium, China Internet and large-caps, cannabis, and oil services. The top ETFs for the week include:

• Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) 13.3%
• KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) 10.7%
• AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) 9.4%
• iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) 5.2%
• VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) 5.1%

Looking Ahead to the Week of August 29

* The closing week of August is heavy on economic data. The Labor Department’s August employment report, due on Friday, is the week’s key event. A survey conducted by Dow Jones shows economists expect job creation in August to total 325,000, lower than July’s 528,000. They expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged from July at 3.5%.

* Investors will also receive updates on the state of manufacturing and housing. They will look for signs of cooling home prices when Standard & Poor’s updates the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

* Several consumer-oriented companies report earnings this week. They include electronics retailer Best Buy; food and beverage companies Brown-Forman, Campbell Soup, and Hormel Foods; and apparel maker PVH Corp. Semiconductor maker Broadcom reports among technology names.
 

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The S&P 500 rose 0.4% last week. Economic data points released during the past week surprised to the upside. Investors were worried that a resilient economy would give the Federal Reserve more room to raise interest rates to tame inflation. Inflation is back in the spotlight this week. The July reading of the U.S. consumer price index is due on Wednesday.

Several economic data points released last week showed the U.S. economy is holding up to higher interest rates.

The closely watched July jobs report showed the labor market added 528,000 jobs, compared to economists’ forecast of 258,000 in a Dow Jones survey. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%. Wage growth rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July, suggesting inflation could still be a problem.

The Institute of Supply Management’s services activity measure unexpectedly rose in July to 56.7%. Economists had expected the index to fall to 54.0% from 55.3% in June. The growth in orders was notably robust. Likewise, the ISM’s manufacturing activity slowed less than expected.

U.S. companies continued to outperform analysts’ second-quarter EPS expectations. FactSet data shows that 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise. With 87% of the index members having reported, earnings are tracking year-over-year growth of 6.7% compared to the 4.0% expected on June 30.

The yield on Treasury securities rose against the backdrop of better-than-expected economic data. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed 0.16% for the week, closing at 2.83%.

Overseas, the Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% to 1.75%. The tension between China and the U.S. increased after U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan and China conducted military exercises in waters off Taiwan’s coast.

For the week ending August 05, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.4%. Six of the 11 sectors advanced.

Leading and lagging sectors for the week ending August 05, 2022.

Among the S&P 500 sectors, information technology (XLK) gained the most while energy (XLE) lost the most.

The S&P 500’s top 10 winners included the following:

1. Information Technology Sector

• EPAM Systems (EPAM) +22% – The week’s top performer in the S&P 500.
• Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY) +19%
• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) +15%
• Paycom Software (PAYR) +12%
• Gartner (IT) +11%
• ServiceNoW (NOW) +11%

2. Health Care Sector

• Moderna (MRNA) +14%

3. Utilities Sector

• Constellation Energy (CEG) +12%

4. Communication Services Sector

• DISH Network (DISH) +11%

5. Financial Sector

• PayPal (PYPL) +10%

Top ETFs for the week

The following ETF themes worked well: high-growth or story stocks in biotech, Internet, FinTech, and cloud computing. The top ETFs for the week include:

• SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) 13.8%
• ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) 13.5%
• ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) 13.4%
• WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) 11.8%
• ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) 10.9%

Focus Shifts Back to Inflation the Week of August 08

* Inflation data take center stage this week. The July consumer price index (CPI) data is due on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the consumer price index to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July, down from 1.3% in June. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy components, is expected to rise by 0.6%. The data on inflation at the wholesale level is due on Thursday.

* Investors will monitor the response of U.S. Treasury yields to inflation data. As bond yields surged last week, the difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year securities widened further. The yield curve is now as inverted as it was in September 2000. An inverted yield curve has often preceded a recession.

* The second quarter earnings reporting season moves closer to its end. Entertainment giant Disney, utility Dominion Energy, industrial company Emerson Electric, food distributor Sysco, and insurer American International Group are due to report this week.
 

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