Looking Back, Looking Forward – July 19, 2020

Progress on COVID-19 vaccines helped stocks stage a broad rally last week. Mixed economic data and the continued rise in COVID-19 cases however limited the advance. The leadership of large-cap technology stocks faltered as investors gravitated towards laggards.

The U. S. Food & Drug Administration granted fast track designation to two of the four COVID-19 vaccines being developed by Pfizer and German biotech BioNTech SE. Separately, data published by the New England Journal of Medicine showed Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine produced a ‘robust’ immune response. Moderna announced its plans to start late-stage clinical trials for its vaccine candidate on or around July 27.

In economic data, retail sales rose 7.5% in June to exceed economists’ forecast. However, jobless claims remained stubbornly high suggesting a slowdown in the pace of hiring. In COVID-19 news, the 7-day average of the number of new cases topped 67,500, up from 57,000 the week before.

The continued leadership of large-cap growth stocks and the NASDAQ Composite index was threatened after this benchmark set multiple new highs the week before. Growth stocks in general and large-cap technology stocks in particular lost ground as investors rotated into out-of-favor parts of the market. Value stocks, large and small fared well.

For the week ending July 17, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 1.3%.

The rally was broad with advancers beating decliners over 5-to-1.

Nine of the 11 sectors gained.

Industrial (XLI), materials (XLB), and healthcare (XLV) led the S&P 500.

Information technology (XLK), communication services (XLC), and real estate (XLRE) lagged the benchmark.

Sector returns for the week ending July 17, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending July 17, 2020.

Six of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners last week were health care companies. Two health care groups, health care diagnostics & research and medical devices, fared notably well.

1. Hanesbrands (HBI) up 23%

Apparel maker Hanesbrands was the week’s top performer in the S&P 500. Analysts at Bank of America (BAC), Credit Suisse (CS), and Raymond James (RJF) upgraded their ratings as COVID-19 is increasing demand for Hanesbrands’ comfortable apparel and masks.

2. Health care diagnostics & research – Waters Corp. (WAT) up 20% and Laboratory Corporation of America (LH) up 12%

Life sciences tools & services provider Waters Corp. pre-announced second-quarter sales of ~ $520 million better than analysts’ $485 million forecast and appointed a new CEO.

Laboratory Corporation of America shares rose after analysts at Bank of America upgraded the diagnostics company’s shares to Buy, citing prolonged COVID-19 testing tailwinds. The analysts raised their price target by 13% to $220 a share.

3. Medical Devices – Align Technologies (ALGN) up 18%, Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) up 13%, and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) up 13%

Shares of orthodontic device maker Align Technologies and orthopedic implant maker Zimmer Biomet rose after analysts at Cowen (COWN), Stifel (SF), and SVB Leerink raised their share price targets.

Investors perceived robotic surgery leader Intuitive Surgical as a beneficiary of delays in Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) robotic surgery program and bid up the former’s shares.

Looking ahead to the week of July 20

* Investors are awaiting early-stage human trial data on a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Oxford University and AstraZeneca. They are expected to be released on Monday by The Lancet, a peer-reviewed medical journal.

* The coming week is a busy one for second-quarter earnings reports. Nearly 90 S&P 500 members report this week. The list of reporting companies includes American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (KO), Microsoft (MSFT), Union Pacific (UNP), and Verizon (VZ).

* Congress is expected to debate a new $1+ trillion stimulus package. Both Republicans and Democrats have a strong incentive to agree on additional stimulus in this Presidential election year. The extension of the $600 per week enhanced unemployment benefit beyond July 31 is a contentious issue.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – July 12, 2020

As COVID-19 cases continued to surge, investors sought safety in large-cap technology stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index set new all-time highs on four of the five trading sessions last week. Stock prices were also helped by U. S. economic data and positive analysis on Gilead Sciences’ antiviral drug.

COVID-19 cases continued in surge particularly in AZ, CA, FL, and TX pushing the nationwide tally over 3.1 million. The daily new case count continued to rise, setting a new record of 63,000 on July 10. The daily death count worryingly showed signs of rising after trending lower from its April high through July 5.

Against this uncertainty, investors gravitated toward the steadiness and predictability of mega-cap information technology and communication services stocks amply included in the NASDAQ Composite Index (ONEQ). The sustained buying pressure into such stocks enabled the NASDAQ Composite to rise to new all-time highs last week and repeat this feat thrice.

The Institute of Supply Management’s service activity index for the U. S. surged back above 50.0 in June to suggest expansion. This index recorded its largest monthly increase soaring to 57.1 in June from 45.4 in May. Additional data from a late-stage study showed Gilead Sciences’ (GILD) remdesivir significantly improved clinical recovery of COVID-19 patients and reduced their risk of death.

For the week ending July 10, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 1.7%.

Six of the 11 sectors gained.

Communication services (XLC), consumer discretionary (XLY), and information technology (XLK) led the S&P 500.

Energy (XLE), real estate (XLRE), and industrials (XLI) lagged the benchmark.
 

Sector returns for the week ending July 10, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending July 10, 2020.

Last week, the S&P 500’s top winners included companies in communication services, retailing, and materials.

1. Communication Services – Netflix (NFLX) and Twitter (TWTR) up 15% each

Anticipating strong results this year, Goldman Sachs (GS) raised its share price target for the streaming entertainment provider Netflix to $670 from $540 implying nearly 30% upside.

Twitter shares rose after a job posting revealed the social media network’s plan to start a subscription service.

2. Materials – Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) up 13% and Air Products (APD) up 10%

Shares of Freeport-McMoRan gained after the miner raised its second-quarter forecast for copper and gold sales to exceed its April guidance by 8% and 10%, respectively.

Air Products along with ACWA Power and NEOM signed an agreement for a $5 billion green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility in Saudi Arabia’s upcoming smart city, NEOM.

3. Retailers Amazon (AMZN) up 11%, Walmart (WMT) up 10%, and eBay (EBAY) up 9%

Citigroup (C) raised its share price target on Amazon to $3,550 from $2,700 implying an 11% upside citing Amazon’s ability to retain pandemic-driven market share gains.

Walmart shares rose on reports of the retailer launching its new subscription service Walmart+ rivaling Amazon Prime.

With eMarketer projecting online sales to grow 18% this year, shares of online retailer eBay continued to ride the e-commerce wave and claimed a spot here for a third straight week.

Looking ahead to the week of July 13

* Wall Street will watch developments related to COVID-19 as in new case trends, changes to keeping businesses open, and reintroduction of quarantines or social distancing measures to assess the trajectory of the economy.

* Second-quarter earnings reports will compete for investors’ attention. Nearly 30 of the S&P 500 members including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), and Honeywell International (HON) report this week. According to Factset, second-quarter earnings are expected to drop 45% from a year ago.

* In economic data, June retail sales will be key. In May retail sales rose 17.7% from April’s depressed level as several retailers reopened for business. Economists are waiting to see if June retail sales show the impact of reversal or delays in reopening retail activity.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – July 05, 2020

Better-than-expected economic data and positive news on an experimental COVID-19 vaccine helped stocks perform well last week. Investors continued to remain cautious as the daily number of new COVID-19 cases set a new record.

Upside surprises to employment and factory activity data boosted the confidence of a quick economic recovery if COVID-19 is brought under control.

The Labor Department reported the economy created a record 4.8 million jobs in June, exceeding economists’ 2.9 million forecast. The unemployment rate fell to a better-than-expected 11.1% from 13.3% in May.

Ending three straight months of contraction in factory activity, the Institute for Supply Management’s index jumped by more than 9.0 points to 52.6 in June from 43.1 in May. While readings above 50.0 suggest expansion, the June reading is also the highest since April 2019.

Pfizer (PFE) lifted investment sentiment stating that its COVID-19 vaccine being developed in collaboration with German biotech firm BioNTech created virus-neutralizing antibodies and was well-tolerated in early-stage human trials.

The daily count of new COVID-19 cases continued to rise. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention set a new record of 54,357 on July 1. The next day, Florida alone reported 10,000 new cases, worse than any European country reported at the peak of their outbreaks.

For the week ending July 2, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 4.1%.

All 11 sectors gained.

Real estate (XLRE), materials (XLB), and communication services (XLC) led the way gaining over 5.0% each.

Financials (XLF), energy (XLE), and consumer staples (XLP) lagged the benchmark.

Sector returns for the week ending July 02, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending July 02, 2020.

FedEx (FDX) along with health care and Internet companies were among the S&P 500’s top winners last week.

1. FedEx (FDX) up 20%

The integrated freight & logistics company reported $2.53 a share in EPS vs. $1.62 analysts’ estimate as a rise in online shopping spurred demand for FedEx’s U. S. Ground deliveries.

2. Health care companies Amgen (AMGN) up 11% and Abiomed (ABMD) up 10%

A U.S. appeals court upheld two patents for Amgen’s $5.2 billion rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel giving exclusive rights to the biotech company through November 2028 and April 2029.

A U. S. study found 84% survival rate in patients with challenging cardiac conditions using Abiomed’s heart pumps.

3. Internet companies Akamai Technologies (AKAM) and eBay (EBAY) up 7% each

Akamai features here for the second straight week after Cowen analyst upgraded its shares to outperform and boosted the price target to $150 from $107 citing continued growth of its content delivery network and underappreciated security business.

Like Akamai, eBay features here again after its shares rose on the chatter of the online retailer moving to a new end-to-end payments process in July when its agreement with PayPal expires and separately, selling its classifieds unit.

Looking ahead to the week of July 6

The trading week is shortened by the observance of the July 4 holiday on Friday, July 3.

* With the second-quarter earnings reporting season more than a week away, investors’ attention will be on COVID-19 cases and unemployment claims (1.35 million expected). Wall Street will also focus on the ISM’s service activity index that is expected to follow factory activity’s lead in rising above 50.

* The U. S. Treasury will auction nearly $100 billion of 3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds combined.

* The earnings calendar is light with only one S&P 500 Walgreens (WBA) scheduled to report. Other names likely to get attention include Levi Strauss (LEVI) and Bed, Bath, and Beyond (BBBY).
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – June 28, 2020

Fears of worsening economic damage from COVID-19 pushed stocks to close near their two-week low. The Fed placed restrictions on banks returning capital to shareholders. The IMF cut its 2020 economic forecast.

The number of new COVID-19 cases nationwide set a new record last week. FL and TX backtracked on reopening their economies. NY, NJ, and CT imposed a 14-day quarantine for visitors from some hard-hit states. Investors fretted over further economic damage from extension of measures to slow the pandemic.

The Federal Reserve told banks they cannot increase dividends or resume buybacks through at least the third quarter. The Fed’s stress tests showed banks getting close to minimum capital levels in certain COVID-19 scenarios.

The International Monetary Fund worsened its forecast for the impact of the pandemic on the U. S. economy. The IMF now expects the U. S. economy to contract 8.0% in 2020 compared to the 6.0% contraction it predicted in April.

For the week ending June 26, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 2.8%.

Information technology (XLK) was the only sector to hold up better than the S&P 500.

Energy (XLE), financials (XLF), and communication services (XLC) lost the most.
 

Sector returns for the week ending June 26, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending June 26, 2020.

The number of losers in the S&P 500 swamped the number of winners by a 9-to-1 margin.

A few one-off plays and some COVID-19 beneficiaries in the information technology sector were among the S&P 500’s top winners last week.

1. The Gap (GPS) up 13%

The retailer partnered with hip-hop musician Kanye West’s Yeezy studio to design clothing lines.

2. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) up 11%

Credit Suisse assumed coverage of the jet engine component supplier formerly called Arconic with a $22 price target implying a 50% upside.

3. Accenture (ACN), eBay (EBAY), and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) up 5% each

IT services firm Accenture posted strong quarterly numbers with sales and EPS above analysts’ estimates. New bookings rose from growth in digital and cloud services businesses.

Analysts raised their price targets for eBay shares as the online retailer is seeing a continued boost to business from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Demand for Akamai’s content delivery network is growing as the use of the Internet becomes more pervasive. Akamai is likely to benefit further if Amazon Prime adds Live TV.

Looking ahead to the week of June 29

The trading week is shortened by the observance of the July 4 holiday on Friday, July 3.

* The June employment data due on July 2 is the main event of the week. Economists expect the economy to have created 3 million jobs. They forecast the unemployment rate to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May.

* Wall Street is trying to assess what the next fiscal assistance package could look like. Analysts will focus on what the Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testify to the House Financial Services Committee next week.

* The earnings calendar includes a few technology, consumer, and industrial bellwethers. Micron Technology (MU), Constellation Brands (STZ), General Mills (GIS), and FedEx (FDX) are scheduled to report next week.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – June 21, 2020

Stock prices reacted positively after retail sales data surprised to the upside and the Federal Reserve unleashed additional measures to stem the damage from COVID-19. However, the persistent increase in new COVID-19 cases and related hospitalizations weighed on stocks. Healthcare stocks fared well.

Last week, the Commerce Department reported an 18% surge in retail sales in May from April. The tally topped the 8% growth economists expected.

The Federal Reserve expanded the scope of its $750 billion emergency corporate loan facility to buy individual corporate bonds.

Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas set new records for daily increases in COVID-19 cases. These increases offset the decline in cases in the New York metro area and caused the nationwide case count to top 2.25 million.

For the week ending June 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) gained 1.5%.

Eight of the 11 sectors advanced.

Healthcare (XLV), information technology (XLK), and communication services (XLC) led the S&P 500 (SPY).

Utilities (XLU), energy (XLE), and real estate (XLRE) lost ground.

Sector returns for the week ending June 19, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending June 19, 2020.

Eight of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners were healthcare stocks. Three of them gained double-digits. Two information technology stocks also gained double-digits to figure amongst the top 10 winners.

1. Double-digit healthcare winners

Shares of Incyte (INCY), Eli Lilly (LLY), and DexCom (DXCM) rose over 10% last week.

Incyte shares surged after enrollment started for Phase 3 trials of baricitinib in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Eli Lilly shares rose on news of the drugmaker’s key breast cancer treatment Verzenio meeting the main goal of a Phase 3 study.

Shares of continuous glucose monitoring systems developer DexCom rebounded after Bank of America analysts reiterated their Buy recommendation and raised their share price objective to $500 from $375.

2. Other healthcare winners

Shares of Amgen (AMGN), Cerner (CERN), Hologic (HOLX), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) recorded strong single-digit gains, advancing between 9% and 10%.

3. Double-digit information technology winners

Semiconductor equipment maker Lam Research (LRCX) and electronic measurement systems provider Keysight Technologies (KEYS) rose 11% each. Morgan Stanley made positive comments on the long-term outlook for Lam Research and raised its share price objective to $334 from $253. Investors returned to Keysight shares after they lost 13% in the first half of June believing supply chain disruptions from COVID-19 would be temporary.

Looking ahead to the week of June 22

* Wall Street will continue to focus on the trend in COVID-19 cases & hospitalizations amidst efforts to restart economic activity.

* Jobless claims will be in focus after last week’s 1.5 million tally marked the slowest rate of decline in claims since early April. The data raised worries of a slowdown in rehiring. Economists will look for this week’s data to either confirm or refute rehiring worries.

* Nike (NKE), Accenture (ACN), IHS Markit (INFO), McCormick (MKC), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are scheduled to report earnings.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – June 14, 2020

A bleak economic outlook from the Federal Reserve and fears of a resurgence in the COVID-19 pandemic in the U. S. weighed on stock prices last week. The sell-off reversed the strong gains made in the opening week of June. Three groups of companies bucked the broad decline.

For the week ending June 12, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 4.7%.

All sectors lost ground for the week.

Information technology (XLK), communication services (XLC), and consumer staples (XLP) held up better than the S&P 500.

Economically sensitive sectors energy (XLE), financials (XLF), and materials (XLB) underperformed the benchmark.

Sector returns for the week ending June 12, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending June 12, 2020.

The Federal Open Market Committee indicated it does not expect to raise benchmark interest rates through 2022 after leaving them unchanged near zero. This along with the Fed’s projection for a 6.5% decline in gross domestic product this year and 9.3% unemployment rate at yearend gave investors the impression that the central bank’s concern on the pace of economic recovery has risen.

Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in states like California, Florida, and Texas that have lifted some restrictions. Texas reported three consecutive days of record-breaking Covid-19 hospitalizations.

Only 25 of the S&P 500 members stayed above the flatline last week.

Three types of stocks featured among the S&P 500’s top 10 winners:

1. Videogame software makers

Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Electronic Arts (EA), and Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) rose between 3% and 4% each from a host of favorable news.

Demand from the stay-and-play crowd vaulted sales of videogame software to a 52% gain in May. Sony (SNE) announced its plan to include a new version of Take-Two’s Grand Theft Auto V in its upcoming PlayStation 5 console. All three game software firms are seen as potential buyers for AT&T’s Warner Bros. gaming division valued at ~ $4 billion.

2. Household products makers

Clorox (CLX) rose 4%. Investors gravitated towards sanitization products & disinfectants as the nationwide count of confirmed COVID-19 cases topped 2 million.

3. Mega-cap growth companies

The three largest S&P 500 members in market capitalization, Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT), eked out small gains last week. Investors felt more comfortable with the ability of these $1 trillion club members to deliver on earnings expectations during the economic downturn.

Looking ahead to the week of June 15

* The Federal Reserve is once again in the spotlight. The Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to provide his semi-annual economic testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. This gives him a chance to calm the stock market.

* May retail sales data are on deck for Tuesday. This key consumer spending measure is likely to be scrutinized for alignment with a surprisingly strong May jobs report. Economists expect retail sales to increase by 9% in May from April.

* A relatively light earnings calendar is in store. Oracle (ORCL), Kroger (KR), and a few consumer discretionary companies Lennar (LEN), CarMax (KMX), and Carnival (CCL) are set to report.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – June 07, 2020

The reopening trade was in full swing last week as investors looked beyond the pandemic and social unrest amidst signs of a rapid economic recovery from mandated shutdowns. A surprisingly strong May jobs report spurred a broad rally in stocks to turn an already strong week into an exceptional one for the bulls.

For the week ending June 05, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 4.9%.

Economically sensitive sectors energy (XLE), financials (XLF), and industrials (XLI) outperformed the S&P 500.

Safe havens health care (XLV), consumer staples (XLP), and utilities (XLU) lost some appeal and lagged the S&P 500.

Sector returns for the week ending June 05, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending June 05, 2020

The economy appeared to reopen at a faster pace than expected last week with COVID-19 seemingly under control. The May jobs report was the highlight of the week. The economy added 2.5 million jobs in May compared to economists’ forecast of 8.0 million job losses. Investors interpreted this as evidence of strong demand compelling businesses to put more people back to work.

Three types of stocks benefited the most as seen from the top 10 winners among the S&P 500 members:

1. Airlines and Boeing

American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) rose 77% and 51%, respectively. The U. S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) was up 33%.

American outlined plans to increase flights during the summer. The airline expects its domestic flights in July to be 45% lower than in July 2019, a sizeable improvement over the 80% reduction seen in April and May.

Shares of aircraft maker Boeing (BA) rose 41% on the back of the rally in airline shares. Boeing also successfully negotiated a couple of its 737 Max orders, avoiding cancellations.

2. Oil producers

Shares of oil producers Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Apache (APA) rose 61% and 49%, respectively after oil prices gained 11% last week. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 23%.

Oil prices rose on expectations of a rapid increase in demand from reopening and OPEC & Russia preponing their meeting to extend production cuts. On Saturday, the group agreed to extend production cuts by a month, i.e., through July.

3. Retailers and Simon Property Group

Shares of retailers surged as malls across many states reopened for business. Nordstrom (JWN) and Gap (GPS) shares rose 40% and 38%, respectively. Retail REIT Simon Property Group (SPG) surged 54%.

On a side note, Simon Property Group is suing Gap for failing to pay more than $66 million in rent during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Looking ahead to the week of June 8

* The main event next week is the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting to discuss interest rate policy. Investors will focus particularly on what the Fed has to say about the strong May jobs report.

* In economic data, weekly jobless claims will continue to be of interest as Wall Street looks for a continued decline in claims.

* The earnings calendar is relatively light with a handful of momentum favorites. Adobe (ADBE), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), and Chewy (CHWY) are set to report.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – May 31, 2020

The lockdown-relief rally extended into the early part of last week as all 50 states reopened at least partly and hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine increased. The rally broadened to consumer discretionary stocks from the prior week winners, i.e., transportation stocks. By the end of the short trading week, the rally was partly undone by worries of rising tension between the U. S. and China.

For the week ending May 29, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 2.0%.

Real estate (XLRE), financials (XLF), and industrials (XLI) outperformed the S&P 500 as investors rotated into beaten-down sectors from stay-at-home plays.

Energy (XLE), information technology (XLK), and communication services (XLC) lagged the S&P 500.

Sector returns for the week ending May 29, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending May 29, 2020

News of Novavax (NVAX) starting a Phase 1/2 trial for its coronavirus vaccine boosted hope of a ‘permanent fix’ to COVID-19.

Retailers fared well as people emerged from the lockdown. Macy’s (M) ability to secure funds for its $1.3 billion debt offering boosted confidence in the retailing sector’s recovery.

Four of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners were apparel retailers and department store operators. L Brands (LB), Gap (GPS), Kohl’s (KSS), and Nordstrom (JWN) gained between 20% and 33%, each.

Other notable top 10 winners in the S&P 500 include:

1. Beauty company Coty (COTY) +28%

Reports of German consumer goods company Henkel AG & Co. (HENOY) acquiring Coty. Coty owns 51% of Kylie Cosmetics founded by Kylie Jenner.

2. Discount store Dollar Tree (DLTR) +23%

Same-store sales grew 7% in the fiscal first quarter from pandemic-related stocking, helping sales and EPS top analysts’ forecasts.

3. Property & casualty insurer Chubb (CB) +18%

Lloyd’s of London lowers estimate for industry-wide losses from the pandemic to about $100 billion.

Looking ahead to the week of June 1

* Investors will continue to focus on the tension between Washington and Beijing. Rising tension can prompt a flight to safety and stay-at-home plays.

* May employment report is on deck for Friday. Economists expect 8.4 million job losses with the unemployment rate rising to 19.8% from 14.7% in April.

* Several stay-at-home beneficiaries including Zoom Video Communications (ZM), Slack Technologies (WORK), and Campbell Soup (CPB) along with semiconductor biggie Broadcom (AVGO) are scheduled to report quarterly earnings.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – May 25, 2020

Stocks rallied last week on the back of encouraging coronavirus vaccine trial data and rising expectations of a rebound in economic activity. Transportation stocks thrived in this milieu. Selected consumer discretionary companies also posted strong gains in this risk-on setting.

For the week ending May 22, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose 3.1%.

Economically sensitive sectors industrials (XLI), energy (XLE), and real estate (XLRE) outperformed the S&P 500.

Defensive sectors health care (XLV) and consumer staples (XLP) lagged the S&P 500.

Health care (XLV) was the only losing sector for the week.

Sector returns for the week ending May 22, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending May 22, 2020

Transportation stocks fared well on optimism that the economy is going to get better and travel demand will pick up. Airlines, in particular, got a boost from the Transportation Security Administration’s checkpoint data. The number of travelers going through TSA checkpoints rose for the fourth straight week.

Three of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners were airline stocks. Alaska Air (ALK), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and United Airlines (UAL) gained between 21% and 28%, each.

Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) rose 27% on the hope of cruises resuming sometime in 2020.

Selected consumer discretionary companies also made it to the top 10. They are:

1. Victoria’s Secret parent L Brands (LB) +39%

Plans to close ~ 250 or 25% of Victoria’s Secret stores in the U. S. & Canada after a worse-than-expected quarterly loss.

2. Motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson (HOG) +24%

Optimism on new CEO Zeitz turning around the company after he bought nearly $3 million in Harley shares.

3. Homebuilder PulteGroup (PHM) +20%

A 7 point surge in the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly confidence index in May stoked hopes of a rapid recovery in home sales post-pandemic.

Looking ahead to the week of May 26

The trading week is shortened by the Memorial Day holiday.

* Concerns over rising tension between the U. S and China are likely to return to the front burner as U. S. moves to act strongly against Chinese companies if China imposes a national security law on Hong Kong.

* Investors will continue to focus on the reopening of the economy and development of coronavirus vaccines & drugs.

* Costco (COST) and Salesforce.com (CRM) are scheduled to report quarterly earnings.
 


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Looking Back, Looking Forward – May 17, 2020

Cautious comments from the top U. S. infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci and Fed chairman Powell dampened the optimism of a quick economic recovery last week. Healthcare stocks fared well in this risk-off setting. Selected non-healthcare companies that had something special made it to the list of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners.

For the week ending May 15, the S&P 500 (SPY) fell 2.1%.

Only one sector, health care (XLV), managed to gain for the week.

Communication services (XLC) and information technology (XLK) held up better than the S&P 500. Energy (XLE) and real estate (XLRE) lagged.

Sector returns for the week ending May 15, 2020

Leaders and laggards for the week ending May 15, 2020

Several states opted to ease stay-at-home orders. Yet, cautious comments from the top U.S. infectious disease expert, Dr. Fauci, and Federal Reserve chairman Powell dampened the optimism of a quick economic recovery.

Healthcare stocks fared well in this risk-off setting, helped by earnings reports as well as positive news on the COVID-19 vaccine and drugs for COVID-19 and other diseases.

Five of the S&P 500’s top 10 winners were health care stocks. Illumina (ILMN), AbbVie (ABBV), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Humana (HUM), and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) gained between 5% and 8%, each.

Selected non-healthcare companies that had something special also made it to the top 10.

Here are some of them:

1. Semiconductor chip maker NVIDIA (NVDA) +9%

Introduced its latest processor with 20 times higher performance for use in data centers, data analytics, scientific computing, and cloud graphics

2. Food flavor titan McCormick (MKC) +9% and restaurant chain Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) +5%

Benefiting from consumer behavior changes due to the coronavirus pandemic shutdown

3. Gold miner Newmont Mining (NEM) +5%

Riding gold’s coattails as the metal’s spot price rose as high as $1,751.25 an ounce, its highest since November 2012

Looking ahead to the week of May 18

* Investors will look at the impact of reopening on economic activity and the new COVID-19 case count.

* The housing industry will be in the spotlight with April housing starts data and earnings from Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) on tap.

* Wall Street will pay attention to what Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have to tell the Senate Banking Committee.
 


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